Rapid Valley, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Rapid Valley SD
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Rapid Valley SD
Issued by: National Weather Service Rapid City, SD |
Updated: 9:29 pm MDT Jul 12, 2025 |
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Tonight
 Mostly Clear
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Sunday
 Sunny
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Sunday Night
 Mostly Clear
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Monday
 Sunny then Chance T-storms
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Monday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Tuesday
 Chance T-storms and Breezy
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Tuesday Night
 Chance T-storms and Breezy
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Wednesday
 Showers Likely
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Wednesday Night
 Chance T-storms then Chance Showers
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Lo 59 °F |
Hi 92 °F |
Lo 65 °F |
Hi 99 °F |
Lo 61 °F |
Hi 77 °F |
Lo 56 °F |
Hi 72 °F |
Lo 53 °F |
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Tonight
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Mostly clear, with a low around 59. West wind around 5 mph. |
Sunday
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Sunny, with a high near 92. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. |
Sunday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 65. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. |
Monday
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 99. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. |
Monday Night
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A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Southeast wind around 10 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. |
Tuesday
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before noon, then a chance of showers between noon and 3pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Breezy, with a north wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Tuesday Night
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A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. |
Wednesday
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Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. |
Wednesday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. |
Thursday
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 76. |
Thursday Night
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. |
Friday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. |
Friday Night
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. |
Saturday
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Rapid Valley SD.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
101
FXUS63 KUNR 122329
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
529 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Dry this weekend with temps warming back up through Monday
-Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather over western South Dakota
on Monday.
-Unsettled conditions return next week with a significant cool
down mid next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025
Upper-level ridging remains anchored over the central CONUS,
supporting the mostly clear skies and dry conditions across
western South Dakota. The ridge axis will gradually shift eastward
through Sunday, allowing for increasing southwesterly flow aloft.
At the surface, high pressure over the northern Plains will drift
east, with return flow developing across the western Dakotas. This
will lead to modest moisture advection and a warming trend through
Monday.
By late Monday, a weak shortwave embedded in the southwesterly
flow may initiate some isolated convection across the Black Hills
and adjacent plains. Forecast soundings show marginal instability
(MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) and weak shear suggesting a low-end
thunderstorm potential. PoPs were maintained in the 20-30% range.
There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for portions of
western South Dakota Monday afternoon highlighted by the Storm
Prediction Center.
A more amplified upper trough will dig into the northern Rockies
Tuesday, enhancing mid-level ascent and destabilizing the column.
Increasing PWATS (~1.2-1.4") and steepening lapse rates will
support scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Ensemble guidance suggests a 40-50% chance
of measurable precipitation across much of western SD plains.
Wednesday appears to be the most active day as the trough axis
crosses the region. Broad cyclonic flow and embedded shortwaves
will maintain widespread cloud cover and precipitation. PoPs range
from 60-70% with a higher probability of measurable rainfall.
Model consensus supports QPF totals of 0.25-0.50", with locally
higher amounts possible. Expect daily thunderstorm chances
throughout the week before things begin to dry out by next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued At 528 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025
VFR conditions through the TAF period.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Woodward
AVIATION...15
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